Economy

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Our U.S. recession dashboard points to recession starting by mid-2020

Our U.S. recession dashboard points to recession starting by mid-2020.png

Model based recession probability

Model based recession probability.png

30-year fixed mortgage rate

30-year fixed mortgage rate.png

Average of the four valuation indicators since 1900 (Geometric)

Average of the four valuation indicators since 1900 (Geometric).png

Average of the four valuation indicators since 1900

Average of the four valuation indicators since 1900.png

10-year nominal total return

10-year nominal total return.png

Key contributors to NBER-Dated U.S. recessions

Key contributors to NBER-Dated U.S. recessions.png

Gold can experience short rallies within a bear supercycle

Gold can experience short rallies within a bear supercycle.png

Gold vs. bonds, stocks, and home prices

Gold vs. bonds, stocks, and home prices.png

Commodity cycles have been shortening since 1803

Commodity cycles have been shortening since 1803.png

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